Playoff seeding on the line Friday, here are the scenarios
Florence at Anaconda is more than just Senior Night for the Copperheads. It’s also the game where they can not only secure their ultimate playoff appearance, they can control what number that actually displays.
First and foremost, Anaconda is in the playoffs. Let’s get that out of the way. Now it’s just about where they will be and if they get the opportunity to host a playoff game.
On Friday, Anaconda must beat Florence and do it by at least 14 points. Anything less will result in most likely the No. 3 seed in the west. The reason?
MHSA uses the Taylor Point System for tiebreakers.
Scenario with an Anaconda win: If Anaconda wins by 14 this week over Florence they will most likely win the tiebreaker and get the No. 1 seed in the West-contingent they win against winless Deer Lodge by at least 14 points. If they win by anything less, they will get the 3 seed due to the tiebreaker. If they lose on Friday, they will get the 3 seed due to the head-to-head win over Loyola.
Remember, these scenarios are only if all three – Anaconda, Florence and Eureka – win its final game of the season. Judging by the way the West has shaken out to this point, that seems to be a likely guesstimate.
Why 14? Well, the Taylor Point System is based on a maximum of 14 points when looking at margin of victory. Anaconda lost 26-0 to Eureka and Florence beat Eureka 33-6. The point differential puts Anaconda at minus-14, Eureka at a net 0 and Florence at plus-14. Anaconda must even out the differential – anything else would leave them behind Eureka in third place.
If they win by 14, all three teams even out. Then, the second tiebreaker goes to other common opponents. The most pertinent team in this equation is Loyola. Anaconda beat Loyola 21-7 but Eureka only won by six, 36-30. If Florence loses to Anaconda, they must beat Loyola by more than six to earn the No. 2 seed. The other common opponents – Thompson Falls and Deer Lodge – are predicted to be at least 14 point wins for all three.
This is more than just about winning the Western B conference, it’s about seeding. The winner of the West earns home field throughout the playoffs (could you imagine the atmosphere of Mitchell Stadium hosting a state title?).
In my opinion, Anaconda is either playing for the 1 or the 3 seed. No matter what, it will be the first time Anaconda gets into the playoffs since 2016 and only the second time as a Class B school. Get the 1 seed and it will be the first time Anaconda has hosted a playoff game since 2012.
Loyola could absolutely throw a wrench into this on the final weekend of the season when they travel to Florence for its customary end-of-the-season rivalry showdown. If Loyola beats Florence, depending on if the Falcons win or lose in Anaconda, it could earn them a No. 3 seed and skirt the first round 1-4 matchup on the road. And would it surprise anyone that Loyola win this game? Not in the least. They have a history of being their very best at the end of the season, and I guarantee, even with a loss to Florence, The No. 1 seed out of the North (Malta/Glasgow) doesn’t want that to be the first game of the playoffs.
If you’re Anaconda and why you don’t want to go on the road in the playoffs … Simply it hasn’t been a historically great situation for the Copperheads. The most recent road win in the playoffs for Anaconda was in 2006, a 28-27 comeback win in Polson. Before that, it was a 14-0 triumph over Sidney. In 1951.
The No. 3 seed will only get to host a playoff game if they meet a higher seed in any one of the playoff rounds.
There are a few power polls highlighting teams throughout the state, but I truly believe the power lies in the South and West. I think Manhattan is the cream of the crop, a team Anaconda lost to, 15-6, on the opening week of the season. I also believe Three Forks is right there too. If I were to rank the state this is how I would go.
- Manhattan
- Three Forks
- Florence
- Eureka
- Anaconda/Townsend
No disrespect to Malta, the defending champion, Glasgow, right on Malta’s heels in the North, or Red Lodge, a perennial power in the East, but when looking at common opponents and outcome trends, this seems to be a pretty good barometer of how this thing could shake out.
The beauty of it all is that Anaconda is back in the playoffs and Friday’s have become such a great atmosphere celebrating the hard work and effort of all these boys and coaches. Friday is a culmination of these achievements and there’s no better place to watch this all unfold than at Mitchell Stadium.
Go win the west, gentlemen. Anaconda is behind you!
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